The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) causes varicella upon first exposure and may reactivate later in life into herpes zoster (HZ), with a risk that is thought to be reduced by re-exposures to VZV. Given the decades-long time scales of reactivation and its dependence on the accumulation of re-exposure episodes, adopting a long-term perspective may be useful to correctly interpret current epidemiological trends of VZV. In this study, we investigate the possible impact of demographic changes on varicella and HZ in Spain, using an age-structured mathematical model informed with historical demographic data and calibrated against age-specific profiles of varicella seroprevalence and HZ incidence data. The model qualitatively reproduces the remarkable growth of HZ incidence observed in Spain between 1997 and 2004, before the introduction of varicella vaccination programmes. We demonstrate that this growth may be partially ascribed to the reduction of varicella circulation that followed the overall decline of the birth rate in the twentieth century. Model predictions further suggest that, even under the most optimistic projections, HZ incidence will continue its rise until at least 2040. Considering the effect of demographic changes can help interpreting variations in epidemiological trends of HZ, contributing to a more accurate evaluation of vaccination programmes against VZV.     

Historical demographic profiles and genetic variation of the East African Butana and Kenana indigenous dairy zebu cattle

Butana and Kenana breeds from Sudan are part of the East African zebu Bos indicus type of cattle. Unlike other indigenous zebu cattle in Africa, they are unique due to their reputation for high milk production and are regarded as dairy cattle, the only ones of their kind on the African continent. In this study, we sequenced the complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) D‐loop of 70 animals to understand the maternal genetic variation, demographic profiles and history of the two breeds in relation to the history of cattle pastoralism on the African continent. Only taurine mtDNA sequences were identified. We found very high mtDNA diversity but low level of maternal genetic structure within and between the two breeds. Bayesian coalescent‐based analysis revealed different historical and demographic profiles for the two breeds, with an earlier population expansion in the Butana vis a vis the Kenana. The maternal ancestral populations of the two breeds may have diverged prior to their introduction into the African continent, with first the arrival of the ancestral Butana population. We also reveal distinct demographic history between the two breeds with the Butana showing a decline in its effective population size (N_e) in the recent past ~590 years. Our results provide new insights on the early history of cattle pastoralism in Sudan indicative of a large ancient effective population size.     

The fifteenth- and twentieth-century colonization of the Basin of Mexico by the Great-tailed Grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus)

Historical evidence indicates that Great‐tailed Grackles colonized the Basin of Mexico from the Gulf Coast lowlands in the fifteenth century. They were probably assisted by an intentional introduction, but colonization succeeded because of anthropogenic habitat alterations over the previous two centuries. During the Colonial period, grackles withdrew from the Basin, only to recolonize it in recent decades. This withdrawal was also due probably to changes in land use, including drainage of much of the water from the Basin's lakes.     

Mechanoreceptor synapses in the brainstem shape the central representation of touch

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A protocol for temporal calibration of general area cladograms

Aim To describe a protocol for incorporating a temporal dimension into historical biogeographical analysis, while maintaining the essential independence of all datasets, involving the generation of general area cladograms. Location Global. Methods General area cladograms (GACs) are a reconstruction of the evolutionary history of a set of areas and unrelated clades within those areas. Nodes on a GAC correspond to speciation events in a group of taxa; general nodes are those at which multiple unrelated clades speciate. We undertake temporal calibration of GACs using molecular clock estimates of splitting events between extant taxa as well as first appearance data from the fossil record. We present two examples based on re‐analysis of previously published data: first, a temporally calibrated GAC generated from secondary Brooks parsimony analysis (BPA) of six extant bird clades from the south‐west of North America using molecular clock estimates of divergence times; and second, an analysis of African Neogene mammals based on a phylogenetic analysis for comparing trees (PACT) analysis. Results A hypothetical example demonstrates how temporal calibration reveals potentially critical information about the timing of both unique and general events, while also illustrating instances of incongruence between dates generated from molecular clock estimates and fossils. For the African Neogene mammal dataset, our analysis reveals that most mammal clades underwent geodispersal associated with the Neogene climatic optimum (c. 16 Ma) and vicariant speciation in central Africa correlated with increased aridity and cooler temperatures around 2.5 Ma. Main conclusions Temporally calibrated GACs are valuable tools for assessing whether coordinated patterns of speciation are associated with large‐scale climatic or tectonic phenomena.     

Interactions of target population size,population parameters,and program management on viability of captive populations

When established conservation programs expand and evolve, management practices may become inconsistent with program goals. In the past decade, the American Zoo and Aquarium Association expanded species conservation programs by increasing the number of Species Survival Plans (SSP) and establishing more than 300 new Population Management Plan (PMP) programs. However, limited space in captive breeding facilities forces a competition among SSPs and less intensively managed PMPs. Regional Collection Plans establish priorities and allocate space accordingly by setting target population size for each species; species of high conservation priority (SSPs) are allocated space at the expense of lower priority species (PMPs). Because population size and genetic composition interact to impact population viability, target population size is a significant factor to a population’s prospects for long‐term survival. We examined four population parameters (current population size, target population size, current gene diversity, and mean generation time) for 46 mammalian SSPs and 17 PMPs. Relative to SSPs, PMPs combine smaller current and target population sizes, lower levels of current gene diversity, and shorter mean generation times than SSPs. Thus, the average PMP population can expect to lose gene diversity more rapidly than the average SSP population. PMPs are projected to lose 10% or more of their founding gene diversity, within only 2 years. In contrast, the average SSP population is projected to lose 10% in 40 years. Populations with small current or target population sizes require intensive management to avoid extinction. More intensive genetic management of populations typically designated as PMPs, through recruitment of potential founders and equalization of founder representation, could increase gene diversity and improve viability. Less rigorous population management should be reserved for populations whose long‐term survival is either secure or that can be readily replenished from the wild. Because PMP populations need intense genetic management similar to that currently in effect for SSPs, there should be neither a management‐level distinction between programs nor an arbitrary difference in space allocated to programs. Zoo Biol 20:169–183, 2001. © 2001 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Does foraging mode influence life history traits? A comparative study of growth,maturation and survival of two species of sympatric snakes from south‐eastern Australia

Abstract Theory predicts that compared with active searchers, ambush foragers should have lower rates of energy intake, slower growth, and higher survival rates. We tested these predictions with data on two species of sympatric, saurophagous, small‐bodied, viviparous elapid snakes: the broad‐headed snake, Hoplocephalus bungaroides, and the small‐eyed snake, Rhinoplocephalus nigrescens. Demographic parameters and growth curves for both species were estimated from a long‐term (9 years) mark‐recapture study in Morton National Park, south‐eastern Australia. The ambush predator (H. bungaroides) displayed slower juvenile growth and later maturation (5 years for males, 6 years for females) than did the active forager (R. nigrescens, 3 years). Litter sizes were similar in both species, but reproductive frequency was higher in R. nigrescens (90–100%) than in H. bungaroides (50%). Juvenile survival was lower in the active searcher (31%) than in the ambush forager (55%), but adult survivorship was similar (74% vs 82%). Our results support the hypothesis that ambush foragers display ‘slow’ life history traits, but additional phylogenetically independent comparisons are needed to evaluate the generality of this pattern.